Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2eca…a571 politics 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$1
sports 17% $0
other 17% −$1
economics 9% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 22 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage116d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $102 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 03 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 27 $101 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $102 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $103 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $103 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $103 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 28 $103 $0 +0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 24 $104 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $207 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $104 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 05 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $104 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $101 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $102 12h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $102 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $102 8d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $102 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $102 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $102 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $101 30d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 36d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 36d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $102 39d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $102 39d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 42d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 42d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $102 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $102 45d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 48d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 49d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $103 70d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $103 71d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $103 73d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $103 74d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $103 78d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $103 79d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $103 83d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $103 83d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $103 86d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $103 86d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $103 89d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $7 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records