trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? | No | 70¢ | 97¢ | $301 | $416 | +$115 (+38%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | $363 | $369 | +$6 (+2%) |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? | No | 43¢ | 0¢ | $298 | $0 | −$298 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | Jun 12 | $58 | +$8 | +13% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | Jun 12 | $187 | +$11 | +6% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? | Jun 10 | $47 | +$13 | +28% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? | Jun 08 | $704 | +$236 | +34% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? | Jun 02 | $300 | −$298 | -99% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? | Jun 01 | $699 | +$48 | +7% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | Jun 01 | $198 | +$55 | +28% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $100 | +$12 | +12% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +20.1% | +8.7% | 100% | 75% | +14.8% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +3.4% | -6.4% | 88% | 62% | -6.2% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +3.4% | -6.4% | 88% | 62% | -6.2% |
| all | 8 | +3.4% | -6.4% | 88% | 62% | -6.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.4% | 62% | -6.2% |
| 10% | -15.4% | 38% | -15.1% |
| 15% | -23.6% | 0% | -23.3% |
| 20% | -31.0% | 0% | -30.9% |