Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2E
0x2ecb…49de
crypto · 10 markets active 2h ago
7.0score
+$206 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$85 · open +$121
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$785
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$121
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage19d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$268
14 days+$85
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? No 70¢ 97¢ $301 $416 +$115 (+38%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? No 93¢ 94¢ $363 $369 +$6 (+2%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? No 43¢ $298 $0 −$298 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $58 +$8 +13%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $187 +$11 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $47 +$13 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $704 +$236 +34%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 02 $300 −$298 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $699 +$48 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $198 +$55 +28%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 72% +$418
world 15% +$74
politics 10% −$298
finance 3% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 93¢ $364 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 94¢ $66 18h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $198 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY No 70¢ $293 46h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY No 70¢ $5 46h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY No 70¢ $4 47h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 93¢ $187 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 83¢ $44 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 83¢ $14 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 77¢ $47 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 76¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 76¢ $6 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 76¢ $555 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 71¢ $65 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 71¢ $76 7d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 42¢ $210 10d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 44¢ $45 11d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 44¢ $45 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? SELL No 100¢ $747 12d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $253 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY No 93¢ $699 13d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $198 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $100 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +20.1% +8.7% 100% 75% +14.8%
≤30d 8 +3.4% -6.4% 88% 62% -6.2%
≤90d 8 +3.4% -6.4% 88% 62% -6.2%
all 8 +3.4% -6.4% 88% 62% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 62% -6.2%
10% -15.4% 38% -15.1%
15% -23.6% 0% -23.3%
20% -31.0% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $784.79 · official $784.79 (match) · 30 history records