Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:23:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2E 0x2ecb…7645 sports 332 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (380 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$18,298 (+26%) realized +$17,128 · open +$1,170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%137W / 241L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day380.3pace
Fees−$630est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$10,825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$7,778
other 25% −$810
economics 1% +$726
crypto 0% +$4
politics 0% +$275
culture 0% −$19
world 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (380 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 340 +49.6% +35.4% 35% 30% -6.6%
≤30d 378 +47.0% +33.0% 36% 31% -6.0%
≤90d 378 +47.0% +33.0% 36% 31% -6.0%
all 378 +47.0% +33.0% 36% 31% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover380.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.0% 31% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here +20.3% 24% -15.0%
15% +8.6% 20% -23.2%
20% -2.0% 17% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +104% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$55 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$10,825
Realized+$17,128
Unrealized+$1,170
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses137 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$630
Open positions125
Markets (closed)378 / 332
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$213
Trades / day380.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 125 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $891 $888 −$2 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 7¢ 22¢ $252 $774 +$522 (+207%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $508 $505 −$3 (-1%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $506 $500 −$6 (-1%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $489 $485 −$4 (-1%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $364 $363 −$1 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 74¢ $398 $358 −$40 (-10%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 77¢ 79¢ $346 $353 +$6 (+2%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 56¢ 66¢ $296 $346 +$50 (+17%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 20¢ $44 $325 +$281 (+639%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $316 $306 −$10 (-3%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $286 $304 +$18 (+6%)
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $283 $287 +$4 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 86¢ $218 $282 +$64 (+30%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $268 $274 +$6 (+2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 72¢ $242 $229 −$12 (-5%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $220 $223 +$3 (+1%)
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 91¢ $191 $198 +$7 (+4%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 80¢ $173 $184 +$11 (+6%)
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 94¢ $136 $148 +$12 (+9%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $185 $145 −$40 (-22%)
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 81¢ 86¢ $121 $128 +$7 (+6%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $125 $127 +$1 (+1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $112 $115 +$3 (+3%)
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $99 $110 +$12 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-03? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? Jun 18 $82 −$68 -84%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-30? Jun 18 $1 +$47 +3154%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 18 $2 +$14 +592%
Will Boston Legacy FC win on 2026-05-22? Jun 18 $38 −$34 -89%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +232%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 18 $78 −$65 -84%
Will Belarus vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Shubman Gill win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 18 $60 −$39 -65%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-09? Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $0 +$1 +1510%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-19? Jun 18 $1 +$44 +6981%
Will Denver Summit FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will "THE REVO" by PORNOGRAFFITTI (My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON) win Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Castres Olympique win? Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Slovenia vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Unión win on 2026-03-06? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-05-10? Jun 18 $21 −$24 -115%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 18 $107 −$94 -89%
Will "Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle" win Film of the Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: VfB eSports vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $0 +$15 +26820%
Will Dundee FC vs. Aberdeen FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$25 -73%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-09? Jun 18 $84 −$55 -66%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 18 $5 +$63 +1313%
Will Toulon win? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-05-19? Jun 18 $29 −$26 -88%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs LUA Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 18 $137 −$108 -78%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-16? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-19? Jun 18 $3 +$9 +277%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 18 $558 −$520 -93%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-24? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gangwon FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $73 −$66 -91%
Will CD Comerciantes Unidos win on 2026-05-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-27? Jun 18 $164 −$172 -104%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-27? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Will "ReawakeR (feat. Felix of Stray Kids)" by LiSA (Solo Leveling Sea Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-23? Jun 18 $5 −$6 -118%
Set 1 Winner: Piros vs Barrios Jun 18 $0 +$18 +5792%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Susannah Flood" win Best Leading Actress in a Play at the 2026 T Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $14 13m
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 33m
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $5 33m
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 33m
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 33m
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $9 36m
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $16 37m
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 54m
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $33 1h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $35 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $32 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $37 2h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $177 2h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $177 2h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $177 2h
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2h
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2h
Overwatch: Falcons vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY O2 Blast 4¢ $5 3h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $12 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,825.19 · official $10,825.23 (match) · 3500 history records