Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2E
0x2ece…dd5d
other · 31 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$22 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$22 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage291d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $57 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $62 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $54 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $35 +$21 +61%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Nov 04 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Sep 02 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 28 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$1
other 26% +$21
politics 14% −$1
tech 7% $0
culture 4% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $21 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $21 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $18 3h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $54 15h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $54 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 35h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $59 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $19 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $36 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $27 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $42 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $18 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $60 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $48 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $53 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 0% -9.3%
all 30 +1.8% -7.9% 40% 3% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 3% -7.0%
10% -16.7% 3% -15.9%
15% -24.7% 3% -24.0%
20% -32.1% 3% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.85 · official $17.85 (match) · 103 history records