Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2E 0x2ed0…eed4 sports 500 markets active 9h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$10 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate62%304W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$6
crypto 12% −$5
world 4% −$13
other 2% −$8
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.3% -22.5% 62% 62% -22.2%
≤30d 105 +2.0% -7.7% 67% 67% -7.3%
≤90d 177 -3.1% -12.3% 62% 62% -11.3%
all 494 -1.5% -10.9% 62% 61% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 61% -12.0%
10% -19.4% 56% -20.4%
15% -27.2% 45% -28.1%
20% -34.3% 32% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses304 / 190
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)494 / 500
History coverage168d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 494 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Washington Commanders agree to name stadium after Trump? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Hiroshima Carp vs. Hanshin Tigers Hanshin Tigers 60¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 180 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $1 $0 +27%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears Jun 27 $1 +$1 +70%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $1 $0 +31%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas Jun 27 $1 $0 +42%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $1 $0 +16%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos Jun 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $1 +$1 +60%
ITF Irvine: Bryce Nakashima vs Ronit Karki Jun 20 $1 +$1 +55%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $1 +$1 +52%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 20 $1 $0 -25%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Bolszewo: Briana Szabo vs Victoria Bosio Jun 19 $1 $0 +34%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $1 +$1 +50%
ITF Lourinha: Joao Domingues vs Fabrizio Andaloro Jun 19 $1 +$1 +67%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $1 +$1 +79%
ITF Mohammedia: Federica Sacco vs Martina Colmegna Jun 19 $1 $0 +32%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti Jun 19 $1 $0 +26%
ITF Lourinha: Thijs Boogaard vs Carl Emil Overbeck Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Maanshan: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Hiroki Moriya Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato Jun 19 $1 $0 +26%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Harrison/Skupski vs Johnson/Zielinski Jun 18 $1 $0 +42%
ITF Dinard: Antonia Stoyanov vs Mavie Osterreicher Jun 18 $1 $0 +29%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Bhambri/Venus vs Arevalo/Pavic Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Jun 18 $1 $0 +27%
ITF Sapporo: Shihomi Li Xuan Leong vs Sae Noguchi Jun 18 $1 $0 +20%
ITF Maanshan: Jaesung Choe vs Aoran Wang Jun 18 $1 $0 +23%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $1 $0 +17%
ITF Maanshan: Alberto Lim vs Joshua Charlton Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Kerem Yilmaz vs Theo Herrmann Jun 17 $1 $0 +48%
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Izabela Heinzova Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
ITF Gyula: John Hallquist Lithen vs Piet Luis Pinter Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $1 +$1 +61%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Samobor: Ivan Biletic vs Piotr Galus Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Ystad: Gina Marie Dittmann vs Lucie Petruzelova Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes $1 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 72¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 22h
Washington Commanders agree to name stadium after Trump? BUY Yes $1 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 100¢ $1 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes $1 22h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY Yes $1 22h
Hiroshima Carp vs. Hanshin Tigers BUY Hanshin Tigers 60¢ $1 32h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 73¢ $1 32h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 58¢ $1 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 78¢ $1 32h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 76¢ $1 32h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas BUY San Francisco Unicorns 70¢ $1 32h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 86¢ $1 32h
ITF Irvine: Bryce Nakashima vs Ronit Karki BUY Bryce Nakashima 64¢ $1 8d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $1 8d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $1 8d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 86¢ $1 8d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 88¢ $1 8d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 60¢ $1 8d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $1 8d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 70¢ $1 8d
ITF Bolszewo: Briana Szabo vs Victoria Bosio BUY Victoria Bosio 74¢ $1 9d
ITF Lourinha: Thijs Boogaard vs Carl Emil Overbeck BUY Carl Emil Overbeck 67¢ $1 9d
ITF Lourinha: Joao Domingues vs Fabrizio Andaloro BUY Fabrizio Andaloro 59¢ $1 9d
ITF Mohammedia: Federica Sacco vs Martina Colmegna BUY Martina Colmegna 75¢ $1 9d
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti BUY Cosme de Ravel 79¢ $1 9d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY Doosan Bears 53¢ $1 9d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY SSG Landers 53¢ $1 9d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 66¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.28 · official $3.28 (match) · 877 history records