Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ed2…9d82 crypto 319 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,075 (+19%) realized +$1,064 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%168W / 144L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$791now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$213
7 days+$239
14 days+$1,172
30 days+$1,172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$9
other 14% +$31
tech 13% +$933
sports 10% +$94
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +41.0% +27.6% 65% 65% +20.5%
≤30d 25 +40.2% +26.9% 64% 64% +63.1%
≤90d 42 +14.7% +3.8% 57% 55% +52.6%
all 312 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 46% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 46% +10.5%
10% -23.7% 29% -0.1%
15% -31.1% 20% -9.8%
20% -37.8% 12% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$791
Realized+$1,064
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses168 / 144
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions7
Markets (closed)312 / 319
History coverage107d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 84¢ 84¢ $555 $558 +$3 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $69 $72 +$2 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 51¢ 51¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? No 47¢ 48¢ $47 $48 +$2 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+29%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 +$29 +96%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $70 +$60 +85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $11 +$46 +418%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$36 +358%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $81 +$39 +48%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $9 +$5 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $55 +$15 +28%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $29 −$14 -48%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $94 +$16 +17%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $28 +$44 +159%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$2 -19%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $70 −$45 -64%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $37 +$8 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 +$10 +30%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 −$3 -8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 +$18 +60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $639 +$1,031 +161%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $102 −$99 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 3PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7PM ET Apr 09 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6PM ET Apr 08 $4 −$4 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 07 $14 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 01 $14 +$6 +43%
Menorca: Valentin Royer vs Edas Butvilas Apr 01 $20 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 31 $26 −$13 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 31 $5 −$2 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 31 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 31 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 31 $26 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 29 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 26 $41 −$11 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 23 $14 +$6 +43%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 21 $31 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 20 $29 −$3 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 20 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 20 $31 −$1 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 20 $16 +$6 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 19 $21 +$5 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $60 1m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 35m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 47¢ $49 48m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 44¢ $46 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 51m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? SELL No 46¢ $22 51m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 86¢ $204 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 83¢ $6 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 83¢ $13 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 83¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 51¢ $52 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 83¢ $153 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 83¢ $97 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 83¢ $84 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 44¢ $23 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $65 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 55¢ $4 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 55¢ $7 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 55¢ $6 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 55¢ $16 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 16¢ $10 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? SELL Yes 73¢ $14 31h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $790.99 · official $790.99 (match) · 1095 history records