Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ed2…03a3 other 14 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-16%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$1
sports 25% −$7
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -19.6% -27.3% 45% 45% -33.7%
≤30d 11 -19.6% -27.3% 45% 45% -33.7%
≤90d 11 -19.6% -27.3% 45% 45% -33.7%
all 11 -19.6% -27.3% 45% 45% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 45% -33.7%
10% -34.2% 45% -40.0%
15% -40.6% 18% -45.8%
20% -46.4% 9% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -88%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +151%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $5 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $2 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 64¢ $1 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $2 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $3 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 6d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.70 · official $10.70 (match) · 27 history records