Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ed6…13bc crypto 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$64 (-14%) realized −$63 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%43W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$71
other 31% +$3
sports 24% +$1
world 3% −$4
politics 2% +$7
economics 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +57.1% +42.1% 29% 29% +18.9%
≤30d 14 +57.1% +42.1% 29% 29% +18.9%
≤90d 139 -1.6% -11.0% 31% 31% -28.7%
all 139 -1.6% -11.0% 31% 31% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 31% -28.7%
10% -19.5% 31% -35.5%
15% -27.3% 31% -41.8%
20% -34.4% 29% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses43 / 96
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)139 / 147
History coverage71d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $93 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1283%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +248%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +164%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 13? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down on May 12? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 12? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $2 +$1 +39%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad - Who win May 12 $2 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 11? May 12 $2 +$3 +134%
XRP Up or Down on May 11? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 11? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 11 $3 +$5 +158%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 9? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 8? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $3 +$4 +119%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 8? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $1 −$1 -90%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 08 $2 +$3 +146%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 7? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 7? May 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 7? May 07 $7 +$12 +167%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 07 $3 +$3 +105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $2 +$2 +105%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 5? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 05 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $5 +$4 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $94 57m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 34h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 14¢ $1 47h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 33d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 74¢ $3 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 34d
XRP Up or Down on May 12? BUY Up 27¢ $2 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 34d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 52¢ $2 34d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad - Who win SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 49¢ $2 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.87 · official $105.87 (match) · 300 history records