Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2E 0x2ed8…93d4 economics 278 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,692 (+17%) realized +$20,115 · open +$3,577
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate57%139W / 105L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$501per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$37,646now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$264
7 days+$513
14 days+$939
30 days+$842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 61% +$6,549
sports 21% +$7,055
other 15% +$1,066
world 1% +$249
finance 1% +$286
crypto 1% −$211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +104.2% +84.7% 67% 33% -7.2%
≤30d 56 +25.2% +13.3% 59% 23% -7.2%
≤90d 163 +16.0% +5.0% 60% 32% -2.2%
all 244 +16.5% +5.4% 57% 31% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.4% 31% +0.6%
10% ← realistic here -4.7% 23% -9.1%
15% -13.9% 18% -17.8%
20% -22.4% 16% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$90 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$37,646
Realized+$20,115
Unrealized+$3,577
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses139 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions34
Markets (closed)244 / 278
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$501
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 69¢ 81¢ $4,920 $5,777 +$857 (+17%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 72¢ 87¢ $3,838 $4,646 +$808 (+21%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $2,552 $2,847 +$295 (+12%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 74¢ 88¢ $2,174 $2,557 +$383 (+18%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? No 82¢ 94¢ $2,049 $2,327 +$278 (+14%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 86¢ 74¢ $2,678 $2,314 −$364 (-14%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 47¢ 79¢ $1,111 $1,867 +$756 (+68%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 52¢ 58¢ $1,518 $1,717 +$199 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 73¢ 78¢ $1,544 $1,668 +$124 (+8%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 80¢ 87¢ $1,516 $1,661 +$145 (+10%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? No 75¢ 94¢ $1,172 $1,475 +$304 (+26%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? No 86¢ 93¢ $809 $876 +$67 (+8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 72¢ 52¢ $1,115 $806 −$310 (-28%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No 42¢ 64¢ $507 $775 +$268 (+53%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? No 84¢ 83¢ $705 $696 −$8 (-1%)
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $659 $643 −$15 (-2%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No 72¢ 83¢ $546 $630 +$85 (+15%)
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision? Yes 71¢ 55¢ $769 $594 −$175 (-23%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 86¢ 95¢ $442 $488 +$46 (+10%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? No 75¢ 69¢ $522 $482 −$40 (-8%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 87¢ 95¢ $431 $470 +$38 (+9%)
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $337 $355 +$18 (+5%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? No 83¢ 76¢ $350 $317 −$33 (-9%)
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? Yes 48¢ 43¢ $345 $310 −$35 (-10%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $315 $292 −$24 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027? Jun 17 $85 +$23 +27%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $2,460 +$105 +4%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? Jun 17 $2 +$308 +15135%
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by Jun 17 $257 +$9 +3%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 17 $173 +$127 +73%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the Jun 17 $208 −$21 -10%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $423 −$320 -76%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $1,202 +$65 +5%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the e Jun 17 $84 −$31 -37%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $24 +$1 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $40 −$38 -94%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 15 $104 −$103 -99%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m Jun 15 $8 −$2 -25%
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the Jun 14 $27 +$7 +24%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? Jun 14 $379 +$31 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $180 +$60 +34%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $4,095 +$291 +7%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 10 $4 $0 +4%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 10 $94 −$94 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? Jun 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $77 −$65 -85%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $316 −$190 -60%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 10 $124 +$197 +159%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 10 $1,330 +$34 +3%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $317 +$264 +83%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Jun 07 $228 −$21 -9%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 06 $601 +$7 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $210 −$206 -98%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 05 $2,395 +$156 +6%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? Jun 05 $277 +$432 +156%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? Jun 05 $182 −$182 -100%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? Jun 05 $145 −$145 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 05 $707 +$336 +48%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 05 $869 −$53 -6%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2026 me Jun 05 $66 +$4 +6%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 04 $221 +$18 +8%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 04 $76 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$7 +7%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 04 $168 +$18 +11%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 03 $133 −$15 -12%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 01 $2,384 −$68 -3%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? Jun 01 $11 +$16 +144%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 01 $374 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 01 $156 +$9 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? May 29 $105 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 62¢ $19 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 62¢ $28 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 62¢ $15 1h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $32 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $200 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 84¢ $8 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 86¢ $172 1h
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $103 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $177 1h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $710 1h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 82¢ $675 1h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? SELL No 96¢ $1,827 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 87¢ $90 1h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $92 1h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? SELL No 96¢ $479 1h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 90¢ $226 1h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? SELL No 96¢ $254 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 85¢ $343 1h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $310 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 84¢ $84 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 68¢ $172 2h
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by SELL No 97¢ $255 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 88¢ $266 2h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $300 2h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e BUY Yes 41¢ $63 2h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e BUY Yes 41¢ $43 2h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e BUY Yes 41¢ $12 2h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e BUY Yes 41¢ $16 2h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e BUY Yes 39¢ $47 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,645.72 · official $37,623.00 (match) · 3500 history records