Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ed9…ca97 politics 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,950 (-13%) realized −$1,580 · open −$370
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%9W / 43L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$588
7 days−$477
14 days−$778
30 days−$654
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$554
crypto 31% −$169
other 23% −$2,423
sports 2% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-58.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -65.1% -68.4% 17% 17% -72.1%
≤30d 16 -32.0% -38.4% 19% 19% -19.7%
≤90d 52 -54.2% -58.6% 17% 10% -19.7%
all 52 -54.2% -58.6% 17% 10% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.6% 10% -19.7%
10% -62.6% 8% -27.4%
15% -66.2% 6% -34.4%
20% -69.5% 6% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -75% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$78 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$1,580
Unrealized−$370
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses9 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)52 / 57
History coverage86d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Yes $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Yes $76 $2 −$74 (-98%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Yes $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 13¢ $134 $1 −$133 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? Yes $31 $0 −$31 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $192 −$187 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $104 −$101 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $1,593 −$168 -10%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 −$3 -46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $492 −$70 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $236 −$5 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $346 −$48 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $719 −$56 -8%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,206 +$149 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $216 −$20 -9%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $205 +$144 +70%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president May 17 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 08 $603 +$8 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Apr 24 $2,292 −$1,555 -68%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 17 $240 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t Apr 15 $423 −$184 -43%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 15 $43 −$8 -19%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round Apr 13 $76 −$72 -94%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 13 $153 +$14 +9%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 13 $2,069 −$288 -14%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Apr 12 $116 −$20 -17%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second place in the first round of t Apr 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the Apr 12 $116 +$83 +72%
Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff? Apr 12 $6 $0 +8%
Will Carlos Espá finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Apr 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will José Luna finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 P Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in second place in the first round of t Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in second place in the first round o Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Forsyth finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in second place in the first round of t Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will José Williams finish in second place in the first round of the 20 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in second place in the first round of the Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in second place in the first round of the Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in second place in the first round of the 20 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in second place in the first round of Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alfonso López Chau and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Apr 12 $29 −$19 -67%
Will César Acuña finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in second place in the first round of the Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carlos Espá finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will César Acuña finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in first place in the first round of the 2 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 28 $2,631 +$32 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes $78 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes $32 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $137 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes $103 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes $103 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $192 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes $103 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes $103 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $104 5h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $14 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 7d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $13 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $14 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $8 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $6 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $33 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $272 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $72 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $186 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $44 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $75 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $9 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $9 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $17 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $17 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.14 · official $71.14 (match) · 636 history records