Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2edd…4188 politics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-7%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$11
other 20% −$3
tech 7% −$6
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.6% -19.1% 11% 0% -17.8%
≤30d 9 -10.6% -19.1% 11% 0% -17.8%
≤90d 9 -10.6% -19.1% 11% 0% -17.8%
all 9 -10.6% -19.1% 11% 0% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -17.8%
10% -26.9% 0% -25.6%
15% -33.9% 0% -32.8%
20% -40.4% 0% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 24 $35 −$1 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 24 $35 $0 -1%
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 24 $45 −$2 -5%
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 24 $17 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 22 $11 −$6 -50%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 22 $53 −$7 -13%
Will FURIA make a roster change before July? Jun 22 $14 −$3 -18%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 22 $5 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary SELL Yes 69¢ $18 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 69¢ $34 1h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 72¢ $3 3h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 72¢ $23 3h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY No 71¢ $35 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL Yes 68¢ $22 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL Yes 68¢ $13 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 68¢ $35 3h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? SELL No 37¢ $11 3h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? SELL No 39¢ $4 3h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? SELL No 39¢ $5 3h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? SELL Yes 38¢ $17 3h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? SELL No 39¢ $24 3h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 3h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY No 39¢ $12 3h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY No 39¢ $33 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes $6 46h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 33¢ $32 47h
Will FURIA make a roster change before July? SELL No 61¢ $11 47h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 56¢ $5 47h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 47h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 47h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 47h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 56¢ $5 47h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $35 47h
Will FURIA make a roster change before July? BUY No 74¢ $14 47h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.97 · official $5.97 (match) · 34 history records