Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ee3…089e crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized −$9 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$1
sports 29% +$16
other 20% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -3.5% -12.7% 53% 53% -15.5%
≤30d 34 -3.5% -12.7% 53% 53% -15.5%
≤90d 34 -3.5% -12.7% 53% 53% -15.5%
all 34 -3.5% -12.7% 53% 53% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 53% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 41% -23.5%
15% -28.7% 35% -30.9%
20% -35.6% 24% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Under 57¢ 77¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+35%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Under 54¢ 94¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+73%)
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 82¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+38%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$23 +439%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +28%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 +$3 +93%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $7 +$2 +38%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $24 +$3 +14%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2 +$4 +188%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$3 +73%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $6 +$5 +76%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $11 +$2 +18%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY 43¢ $10 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.30 · official $72.83 · 68 history records