trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 4 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -9.3% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -18.0% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -25.9% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $9,108 | $9,144 | +$36 (+0%) |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | $8,695 | $8,820 | +$124 (+1%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $2,206 | $2,214 | +$8 (+0%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 80¢ | $1,250 | $1,991 | +$741 (+59%) |
| Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $995 | $997 | +$2 (+0%) |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | $536 | $555 | +$19 (+4%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 20¢ | $1,250 | $508 | −$742 (-59%) |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $36 | $36 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $137 | $0 | +0% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | Jun 18 | $6,982 | +$18 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $3,982 | +$18 | +0% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | May 23 | $8,964 | +$9 | +0% |