Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ee7…55a5 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$10
politics 27% −$7
sports 20% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 104 +0.3% -9.2% 9% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 95
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage132d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $413 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 25 $194 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $263 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 21 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 20 $182 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $190 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $187 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $239 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $225 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $201 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $446 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $378 $0 -0%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $153 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 08 $222 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $480 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $204 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 08 $183 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $190 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $428 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $219 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $414 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $216 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 05 $232 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $231 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $427 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $407 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $481 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 03 $227 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 42h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 42h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $22 5d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $22 9d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 10d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 12d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 23d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $194 29d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $194 35d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 36d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $263 37d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $183 37d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $183 38d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $182 64d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $182 65d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $190 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.97 · official $64.97 (match) · 283 history records