Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ee7…7872 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%10W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% $0
other 25% $0
politics 17% −$1
sports 16% $0
culture 6% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses10 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage277d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $13 $0 -2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 07 $1 $0 -24%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 02 $28 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 29 $3 $0 +4%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $18 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $34 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $12 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $14 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $36 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $38 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $15 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $19 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $34 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $33 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $33 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 94¢ $13 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $13 28d
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 98¢ $1 185d
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th SELL Yes 1¢ $0 259d
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th SELL Yes 1¢ $0 259d
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th SELL Yes 1¢ $0 261d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $23 261d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records