Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2E 0x2ee8…7208 sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$52 (+3%) realized +$42 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate63%54W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$27
14 days−$38
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$125
other 32% −$98
crypto 3% −$5
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +12.4% +1.7% 68% 52% -12.4%
≤30d 86 +0.0% -9.5% 63% 48% -8.9%
≤90d 86 +0.0% -9.5% 63% 48% -8.9%
all 86 +0.0% -9.5% 63% 48% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 48% -8.9%
10% -18.2% 36% -17.6%
15% -26.1% 28% -25.6%
20% -33.3% 22% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses54 / 32
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 95
History coverage17d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $20 +$8 (+75%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$7 -41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$11 -45%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $65 +$16 +24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $72 −$71 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 +$18 +55%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$35 -87%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $85 −$66 -78%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $36 +$20 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $57 +$11 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $54 +$14 +25%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +246%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $17 +$16 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $3 +$1 +16%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $16 +$1 +5%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $11 −$11 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $184 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +37%
Prostejov: Tristan Boyer vs Filip Jianu Jun 01 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $148 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 01 $54 +$24 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 +$2 +55%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $4 −$1 -23%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $2 −$1 -71%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? May 31 $26 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $81 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $65 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 84¢ $7 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 5h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $10 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 65¢ $5 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 5h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06- BUY 41¢ $10 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $7 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $39 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $36 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $60 42h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $60 42h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 91¢ $55 42h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $51 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.91 · official $66.92 · 248 history records