Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2eeb…bd84 other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13,264 (-7%) realized −$13,455 · open +$191
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate85%79W / 14L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,801per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$499
14 days+$499
30 days+$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$15,840
other 19% −$1,760
politics 16% +$3,184
economics 12% +$36
tech 4% +$394
sports 4% +$80
culture 1% +$615
crypto 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +27.6% +15.4% 94% 65% -4.1%
≤30d 19 +24.8% +12.9% 95% 58% -4.5%
≤90d 34 +11.5% +0.8% 85% 44% -9.7%
all 93 +7.3% -2.9% 85% 30% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 30% -16.4%
10% -12.2% 19% -24.4%
15% -20.7% 12% -31.7%
20% -28.5% 8% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$2,095) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$1,670 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$2,346
Realized−$13,455
Unrealized+$191
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses79 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)93 / 100
History coverage282d
Avg bet$1,801
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $905 $1,063 +$158 (+17%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 93¢ 97¢ $1,000 $1,041 +$41 (+4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 68¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$65 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $38 +$23 +60%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 22 $2,854 +$2 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $1,199 +$9 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $76 +$25 +32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $1,015 +$55 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 +$29 +60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $877 +$22 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $850 +$54 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $826 +$124 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$20 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $66 −$66 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 +$47 +48%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 29 $782 +$10 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 29 $117 +$2 +2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $879 +$18 +2%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 13 $773 +$48 +6%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 28 $577 +$75 +13%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $352 −$30 -8%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $247 −$180 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $587 +$181 +31%
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026? Apr 23 $3 $0 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Apr 18 $723 −$136 -19%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 17 $334 +$18 +6%
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Apr 14 $497 +$80 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $965 −$962 -100%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 07 $1,502 +$125 +8%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 07 $790 +$117 +15%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $686 +$38 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 30 $625 +$61 +10%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $1,776 +$23 +1%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $999 +$96 +10%
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? Mar 16 $113 +$27 +24%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $447 +$12 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 06 $438 +$10 +2%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 04 $694 +$13 +2%
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $1,123 +$65 +6%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 02 $1,141 +$408 +36%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $193 −$45 -23%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $12,639 −$11,136 -88%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $552 +$66 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $13,115 −$1,432 -11%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $14,057 −$292 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $3,048 +$366 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1,141 +$50 +4%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26? Feb 26 $1,106 +$34 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 28h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 93¢ $1,003 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1,048 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,050 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,116 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $984 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $72 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $45 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $38 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,345.58 · official $2,344.96 (match) · 584 history records