Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2eed…b564 world 27 markets active 2d ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$8
other 24% −$7
sports 13% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.4% -12.6% 40% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 44% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 44% 0% -11.6%
all 27 -7.3% -16.1% 56% 4% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 4% -12.1%
10% -24.1% 4% -20.5%
15% -31.5% 0% -28.2%
20% -38.2% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage469d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $47 −$9 -19%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $7 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $16 $0 -0%
Miami (FL) vs. Georgia Tech Mar 06 $14 +$3 +24%
Georgia vs. South Carolina Mar 03 $17 −$4 -21%
Holy Cross vs. Lafayette Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $38 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $47 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $46 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $35 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $5 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $4 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $36 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records