Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:13:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2eee…deb0 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 35L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$6
politics 20% +$5
other 16% −$2
sports 15% +$4
economics 7% $0
crypto 1% −$7
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 41 -0.9% -10.4% 24% 0% -9.6%
all 47 -0.8% -10.3% 26% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage103d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $52 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 22 $9 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $34 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $90 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 11 $216 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $5 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $350 −$1 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $91 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $170 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $87 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $171 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $30 +$1 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $10 −$1 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $86 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $186 −$6 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $84 +$8 +10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $266 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $214 −$7 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $83 +$3 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $5 −$2 -30%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $10 −$1 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 22 $93 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $92 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 19 $93 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $95 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $7 $0 -4%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $83 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $89 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $43 −$1 -2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $546 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $546 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 18 $319 −$3 -1%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $663 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 16 $65 −$7 -11%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 13 $667 +$5 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $46 +$5 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $7 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $73 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $33 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $44 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $44 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $8 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $2 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $22 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $6 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $82 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $4 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $16 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $69 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $89 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.83 · official $80.83 (match) · 232 history records