Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ef0…5a60 world 31 markets active 3d ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$6
other 25% +$14
politics 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -4.3% -13.4% 19% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 16 -4.3% -13.4% 19% 0% -10.3%
all 31 -4.8% -13.8% 39% 3% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 3% -8.5%
10% -22.1% 3% -17.2%
15% -29.6% 3% -25.2%
20% -36.5% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage465d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $38 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 31 $3 −$2 -70%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 29 $1 $0 +0%
OX.FUN insolvent before April? Mar 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $28 $0 +1%
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $28 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $13 +$14 +102%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $1 $0 -20%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Mar 19 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $21 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $16 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $41 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $41 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $40 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $41 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $18 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $14 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $19 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $13 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $26 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $26 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records