Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ef2…16f5 crypto 397 markets active 4h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$81 (+1%) realized +$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%173W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day111.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$370
7 days−$233
14 days−$210
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$210
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 334 -25.2% -32.3% 44% 30% -12.3%
≤30d 397 -21.7% -29.2% 44% 31% -11.8%
≤90d 397 -21.7% -29.2% 44% 31% -11.8%
all 397 -21.7% -29.2% 44% 31% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 31% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.9% 20% -20.3%
15% -42.1% 13% -28.0%
20% -47.8% 9% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses173 / 224
Open positions0
Markets (closed)397 / 397
History coverage10d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day111.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 397 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $18 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $17 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $24 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$18 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $155 −$43 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $154 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1407 history records