trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $35 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $36 | −$1 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 12 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 10 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 09 | $40 | −$2 | -6% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 09 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 08 | $38 | $0 | -1% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 29 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? | May 22 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | May 14 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | May 12 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | May 09 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | May 08 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 07 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | May 06 | $4 | +$1 | +23% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 | Apr 23 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee | Apr 22 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 22 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? | Apr 20 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 29 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? | Mar 19 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 25% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 25% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 25% | 0% | -10.4% |
| all | 24 | -3.2% | -12.4% | 38% | 4% | -11.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.4% | 4% | -11.4% |
| 10% | -20.8% | 4% | -19.8% |
| 15% | -28.4% | 0% | -27.6% |
| 20% | -35.5% | 0% | -34.7% |