Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ef7…4439 crypto 820 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$317 (+2%) realized +$317 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%369W / 450L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$225
14 days−$667
30 days−$1,172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,116
other 1% −$75
sports 0% +$22
tech 0% +$5
finance 0% −$25
world 0% −$9
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -23.8% -31.1% 37% 35% -28.6%
≤30d 457 -21.7% -29.2% 37% 34% -24.4%
≤90d 819 -15.2% -23.3% 45% 41% -15.6%
all 819 -15.2% -23.3% 45% 41% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 41% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 36% -23.7%
15% -37.3% 30% -31.1%
20% -43.5% 24% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$317
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses369 / 450
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)819 / 820
History coverage53d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 819 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 406 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$30 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$19 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$44 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $47 +$40 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $61 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $36 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $64 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.26 · official $0.83 (match) · 1880 history records