Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2E 0x2ef9…4db4 crypto 1390 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,347 (-11%) realized −$4,330 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%831W / 686L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day76.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,599
7 days−$7,598
14 days−$7,104
30 days−$5,609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,825
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 247 -96.7% -97.0% 3% 0% -98.7%
≤30d 1210 -12.8% -21.1% 53% 51% -23.0%
≤90d 1517 -10.1% -18.7% 55% 52% -21.1%
all 1517 -10.1% -18.7% 55% 52% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 52% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 52% -28.7%
15% -33.6% 45% -35.6%
20% -40.1% 25% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$27 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$4,330
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses831 / 686
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1517 / 1390
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day76.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1517 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner MOUZ 62¢ 59¢ $31 $30 −$2 (-5%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Grind Back 41¢ 11¢ $21 $6 −$15 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $357 −$357 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $262 −$262 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 62¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 45¢ $14 7h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 45¢ $6 7h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 45¢ $3 8h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 41¢ $21 14h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 49¢ $25 14h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 46¢ $5 6d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 51¢ $5 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY ONIC 78¢ $8 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY Bigetron by Vitality 19¢ $2 6d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY G2 Minnesota 20¢ $2 6d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY OpTic Texas 87¢ $9 6d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Los Angeles Thieves 75¢ $8 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - SELL Geek Fam ID 34¢ $3 6d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 85¢ $9 7d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 10¢ $1 7d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 10¢ $1 7d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Noir Esports 20¢ $2 7d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Power Rangers 74¢ $7 7d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - BUY Geek Fam ID 35¢ $4 7d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 49¢ $5 7d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 16¢ $1 7d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 16¢ $1 7d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY Misa Esports 52¢ $5 8d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 12¢ $1 8d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY UCAM Esports Club 22¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $36 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $72 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $72 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.13 · official $36.41 · 3500 history records