Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f03…fa6d sports 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,187 (+7%) realized −$569 · open +$1,756
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%42W / 60L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2,643now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$777
7 days+$2,258
14 days+$286
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$4
other 39% +$2,377
crypto 14% −$395
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +49.1% +34.9% 54% 54% +23.7%
≤30d 102 -9.0% -17.6% 41% 41% -8.2%
≤90d 102 -9.0% -17.6% 41% 41% -8.2%
all 102 -9.0% -17.6% 41% 41% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 41% -8.2%
10% -25.5% 41% -16.9%
15% -32.7% 41% -25.0%
20% -39.3% 39% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$127 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$2,643
Realized−$569
Unrealized+$1,756
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses42 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions4
Markets (closed)102 / 108
History coverage21d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 11¢ 45¢ $300 $1,280 +$980 (+327%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 39¢ $235 $1,008 +$773 (+329%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 43¢ 74¢ $152 $260 +$108 (+71%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 27¢ 13¢ $200 $94 −$106 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $507 +$465 +92%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $204 +$401 +197%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $154 +$970 +631%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $154 −$150 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $461 +$250 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $359 −$350 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $992 +$517 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $97 +$46 +47%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $101 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $98 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$95 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$397 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $98 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$57 +58%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $693 −$684 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $305 +$376 +123%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $204 +$296 +145%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $103 −$87 -85%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $102 +$110 +108%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $293 −$289 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $821 +$466 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$139 +272%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $392 +$445 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $315 −$310 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $329 −$323 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $336 −$330 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $202 +$105 +52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$145 +72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$85 +84%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $163 −$163 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $157 −$157 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $133 −$133 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $153 −$153 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $155 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 5h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $138 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 45¢ $473 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $605 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $204 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 51¢ $507 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $92 27h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,124 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $686 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $359 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $359 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,509 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $992 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $97 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $98 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $24 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $77 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $502 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $98 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $154 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $98 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,642.54 · official $2,661.13 (match) · 209 history records