Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2F 0x2f03…77dc sports 419 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,964 (+10%) realized +$9,028 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%186W / 232L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$1,699est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$120
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$7,586
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 92 +5.3% -4.8% 43% 42% -9.9%
≤90d 418 +4.5% -5.4% 44% 44% -1.4%
all 418 +4.5% -5.4% 44% 44% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 44% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 43% -10.9%
15% -22.8% 43% -19.5%
20% -30.3% 41% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$242 vs −$161 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,028
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses186 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,699
Open positions1
Markets (closed)418 / 419
History coverage80d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 418 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Inner Circle 32¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $144 +$140 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 13 $41 −$5 -11%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $139 +$82 +59%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $68 −$68 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 11 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 11 $262 +$123 +47%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$103 +101%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $229 +$120 +52%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $731 +$346 +47%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $308 +$53 +17%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $55 −$55 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $99 +$77 +78%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $87 −$87 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Ignite - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $58 +$21 +36%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $269 −$149 -55%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $104 −$104 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 06 $148 −$148 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Ignite - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Ignite - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $49 −$49 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $149 −$149 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $253 −$253 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $541 −$118 -22%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $310 −$310 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $809 −$177 -22%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $92 +$90 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $102 +$131 +129%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $45 +$42 +93%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $308 +$76 +25%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $225 −$62 -28%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $515 +$244 +47%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $163 −$163 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $185 −$185 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $328 −$234 -71%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $111 +$130 +117%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southea Jun 04 $173 +$91 +53%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $230 +$328 +143%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $68 +$136 +199%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $33 −$33 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 04 $82 −$82 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $110 −$110 -100%
Dota 2: KO vs ALL GOOD - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $146 −$146 -100%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $146 −$146 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $181 −$181 -100%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $156 −$156 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 32¢ $66 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $43 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline SELL Knicks 35¢ $36 10d
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 54¢ $1 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 38¢ $41 10d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $102 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 15¢ $8 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 83¢ $83 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $24 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $5 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $1 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 87¢ $188 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $102 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 96¢ $113 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 92¢ $92 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 57¢ $68 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $102 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 39¢ $99 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 23¢ $52 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $4 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $14 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 25¢ $18 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 25¢ $16 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 75¢ $47 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 75¢ $91 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 75¢ $41 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 75¢ $97 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 75¢ $26 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 75¢ $16 16d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 75¢ $19 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 2352 history records