Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f03…c848
weather · 57 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$135 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$135 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage19d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$25
14 days−$62
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 29? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 29? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 27? No 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 +$2 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -69%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $2 −$2 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $3 −$3 -79%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$14 +256%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $10 −$7 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma Jun 02 $11 −$3 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -89%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? May 31 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? May 31 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? May 31 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May May 31 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? May 31 $4 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 1? May 31 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 31? May 31 $0 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 30? May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 30? May 30 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 30? May 30 $23 +$7 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 30? May 30 $16 +$7 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 30? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 30 $5 −$3 -54%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma May 30 $10 −$9 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 30? May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 29? May 29 $5 −$2 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 29? May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma May 29 $5 +$3 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 29? May 29 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 29? May 29 $20 −$17 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28? May 29 $42 +$16 +38%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 29? May 29 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 28? May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 28? May 28 $5 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 40¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 40¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 48¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 36¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 9¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 68¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 84¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 50¢ $3 36h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL No 8¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -32.1% -38.6% 19% 10% -42.6%
≤30d 57 -25.3% -32.4% 26% 21% -34.5%
≤90d 57 -25.3% -32.4% 26% 21% -34.5%
all 57 -25.3% -32.4% 26% 21% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 21% -34.5%
10% -38.9% 21% -40.8%
15% -44.8% 12% -46.5%
20% -50.2% 9% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 274 history records