Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f04…c420 other 134 markets active 3h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%21W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$15
other 24% −$79
sports 21% −$9
economics 6% −$2
crypto 6% −$3
finance 5% −$6
culture 5% −$3
world 3% −$7
tech 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.1% -10.5% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 64 -1.5% -10.9% 8% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 120 -1.0% -10.4% 16% 0% -10.3%
all 133 -0.9% -10.4% 16% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses21 / 112
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage98d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $63 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $47 $0 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $52 −$1 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $55 −$1 -2%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $46 $0 -1%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $149 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $103 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $113 −$2 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $61 −$3 -5%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 05 $53 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $60 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $179 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 03 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $55 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 01 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $61 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $68 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 28 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $195 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $56 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $37 2h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $52 3h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $53 8h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 8h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $55 13h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $65 14h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $65 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 90¢ $45 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 91¢ $46 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $40 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $19 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $21 30h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $55 31h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $55 36h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $66 37h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $38 40h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $28 41h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $28 41h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $29 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $55 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $56 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $35 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $35 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $63 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $62 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $63 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $15 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 3d
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $39 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.10 · official $37.10 (match) · 462 history records