Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:57:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f07…1d07 sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$9 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$15
14 days+$14
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$17
other 34% −$16
weather 4% +$1
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +73.6% +57.1% 50% 50% +44.0%
≤30d 19 +34.2% +21.4% 58% 37% +15.4%
≤90d 29 +9.6% -0.8% 55% 41% -6.1%
all 29 +9.6% -0.8% 55% 41% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 41% -6.1%
10% -10.3% 31% -15.1%
15% -19.0% 24% -23.3%
20% -26.9% 17% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)29 / 45
History coverage91d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 58¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $6 −$1 -16%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $5 $0 -2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 +$2 +36%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 05 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 4? Jun 05 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $5 +$26 +510%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $6 −$6 -99%
Clippers vs. Pacers Apr 04 $9 +$3 +28%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Mar 27 $6 +$3 +49%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 26 $5 +$1 +19%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 23 $12 +$3 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 24h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 45¢ $10 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 29¢ $1 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $6 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 71¢ $5 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $5 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $5 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 73¢ $5 11d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 75¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 4? BUY No 91¢ $2 12d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY No 91¢ $2 12d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 4? BUY No 94¢ $2 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4? BUY No 93¢ $5 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $10 14d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 52¢ $5 14d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 16¢ $5 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 42¢ $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.62 · official $69.62 (match) · 82 history records