Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f08…ea8e other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%19W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$21
politics 25% −$13
sports 16% −$11
crypto 9% −$8
economics 4% −$1
world 4% −$2
finance 4% −$4
culture 3% $0
tech 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.4% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 65 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 117 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 143 -0.5% -9.9% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses19 / 124
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage106d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $53 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $409 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $356 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $58 $0 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $56 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 15 $62 −$1 -2%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $64 −$2 -2%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $47 $0 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $66 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 12 $98 −$1 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $71 $0 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $126 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $235 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $174 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 10 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $128 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $42 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $164 −$2 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $8 $0 -4%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $46 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $222 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $45 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $202 −$2 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $54 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $122 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 1h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $53 1h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $53 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $56 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $63 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $65 29h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 30h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $58 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $58 45h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $56 46h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $61 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $62 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $69 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $62 3d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $64 3d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $64 3d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $65 3d
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $62 3d
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $62 3d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $47 4d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $47 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.91 · official $54.91 (match) · 517 history records