Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f0b…82e0 crypto 290 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$337 (+2%) realized +$337 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%118W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$70
14 days−$295
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,162
other 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -68.5% -71.5% 0% 0% -82.7%
≤30d 79 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 42% -11.8%
≤90d 290 -8.6% -17.3% 41% 39% -15.7%
all 290 -8.6% -17.3% 41% 39% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 39% -15.7%
10% -25.3% 38% -23.7%
15% -32.5% 35% -31.1%
20% -39.1% 31% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$42 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$337
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses118 / 172
Open positions0
Markets (closed)290 / 290
History coverage70d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 290 Trades
no open positions (118 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$10 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$59 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$29 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $93 −$91 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$26 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $156 −$152 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $171 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $93 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $158 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $65 −$61 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $68 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $144 −$76 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $204 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $66 +$61 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $46 +$18 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $179 −$173 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $157 −$110 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $120 +$236 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $124 +$85 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$55 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $28 −$13 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $156 −$110 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $157 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $522 +$450 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $260 +$235 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $95 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $172 +$298 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $102 −$77 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $149 −$124 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $145 −$15 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $100 −$35 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $173 −$168 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $117 +$50 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $63 +$26 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $48 +$44 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $82 +$66 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $247 +$176 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $155 −$111 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $79 −$21 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $252 +$189 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $138 +$42 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 02 $133 +$28 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 02 $226 +$37 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $47 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $62 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $63 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $34 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $42 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $156 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $24 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $137 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $67 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $93 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $65 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $65 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $68 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $68 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $144 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $125 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $71 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $152 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 865 history records