Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f0c…04e1 crypto 310 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (205 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$427 (+1%) realized +$427 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%164W / 146L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day204.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,474
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (205 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 310 -0.9% -10.3% 53% 46% -12.1%
≤30d 310 -0.9% -10.3% 53% 46% -12.1%
≤90d 310 -0.9% -10.3% 53% 46% -12.1%
all 310 -0.9% -10.3% 53% 46% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover204.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 46% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 37% -20.5%
15% -26.7% 31% -28.2%
20% -33.9% 27% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$107 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$427
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses164 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)310 / 310
History coverage5d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day204.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 310 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $55 −$53 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $124 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$83 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $127 +$89 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $71 +$62 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $155 −$113 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$49 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $185 −$100 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $179 +$154 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $180 −$46 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $180 −$51 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $60 −$33 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $180 +$46 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $120 +$100 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $60 +$57 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $58 +$49 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $71 −$13 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $59 −$43 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $60 +$54 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $114 −$83 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $69 +$50 +72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $72 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $99 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $296 −$258 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $62 −$46 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $124 −$64 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $515 +$349 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $61 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$14 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$21 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$20 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$31 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$14 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$48 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $124 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $20 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $216 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $127 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $45 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $133 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $71 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $43 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $85 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $185 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $333 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $179 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $134 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $60 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $60 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $60 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $54 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $60 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $75 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $60 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1158 history records