Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2F 0x2f0d…0d85 other 26 markets active 5h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$767 (-29%) realized −$783 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1,002now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$102
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$503
sports 18% −$243
politics 12% +$20
crypto 4% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-62.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -44.9% -50.1% 29% 29% -36.2%
≤30d 7 -44.9% -50.1% 29% 29% -36.2%
≤90d 7 -44.9% -50.1% 29% 29% -36.2%
all 23 -58.0% -62.0% 22% 17% -52.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.0% 17% -52.5%
10% -65.7% 9% -57.0%
15% -69.0% 9% -61.2%
20% -72.0% 9% -65.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$47 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$1,002
Realized−$783
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage143d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $500 $573 +$73 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $471 $392 −$78 (-17%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 66¢ $15 $36 +$22 (+144%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $73 −$46 -62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 −$26 -26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 +$8 +63%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $110 +$13 +12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Dominican Republic make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final? Mar 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico Mar 15 $25 +$23 +92%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 15 $30 −$26 -87%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Feb 09 $110 −$49 -45%
Will "DtMF" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $204 −$104 -51%
Will "MONACO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 07 $184 −$184 -100%
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Super Bowl LX have between 128M and 132M viewers? Feb 03 $21 +$4 +20%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $325 +$20 +6%
Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30? Jan 28 $50 −$28 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $15 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $28 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $73 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 36¢ $73 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $99 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $22 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $22 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 34¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 22¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 75¢ $109 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $101 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $483 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 6d
Will Dominican Republic make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 95d
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela SELL Japan $4 95d
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela BUY Japan 63¢ $30 96d
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico BUY Italy 52¢ $25 96d
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA BUY Dominican Rep. 46¢ $200 96d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $7 117d
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? SELL Yes $0 129d
Will "DtMF" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? SELL No $0 129d
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? SELL No 10¢ $32 129d
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? SELL No 13¢ $68 129d
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 24¢ $204 130d
Will "DtMF" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY No 31¢ $5 130d
Will "DtMF" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY No 31¢ $30 130d
Will "MONACO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes $3 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,001.84 · official $1,001.84 (match) · 66 history records