Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f0e…d1e4 crypto 44 markets active 3d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-14%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%25W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -18.4% -26.2% 55% 55% -25.9%
≤30d 44 -16.4% -24.3% 57% 57% -23.7%
≤90d 44 -16.4% -24.3% 57% 57% -23.7%
all 44 -16.4% -24.3% 57% 57% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 57% -23.7%
10% -31.6% 55% -31.0%
15% -38.2% 55% -37.6%
20% -44.2% 16% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage10d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records