Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f12…62e9 sports 10 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-17%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$13
other 18% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +9.7% -0.7% 100% 33% +0.6%
≤30d 10 -9.8% -18.4% 80% 40% -24.6%
≤90d 10 -9.8% -18.4% 80% 40% -24.6%
all 10 -9.8% -18.4% 80% 40% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 40% -24.6%
10% -26.2% 10% -31.9%
15% -33.4% 0% -38.4%
20% -39.9% 0% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $5 +$1 +29%
Libema Open (Doubles): Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov vs Nouza/Oberleitner Jun 10 $6 +$1 +22%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $12 −$12 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 6d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 95¢ $5 7d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alexander Bublik 100¢ $6 7d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 77¢ $5 7d
Libema Open (Doubles): Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov vs Nouza/Oberleitner SELL Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov 100¢ $7 7d
Libema Open (Doubles): Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov vs Nouza/Oberleitner BUY Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov 72¢ $1 7d
Libema Open (Doubles): Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov vs Nouza/Oberleitner BUY Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov 84¢ $5 7d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 97¢ $5 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 66¢ $5 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 99¢ $6 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 88¢ $5 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 63¢ $2 7d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 100¢ $11 7d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 93¢ $10 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 79¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records