Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f13…f31e crypto 777 markets active 0h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,900 (-6%) realized −$1,900 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%304W / 472L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$446
7 days+$778
14 days+$695
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +2.2% -7.5% 48% 46% +1.2%
≤30d 206 -2.1% -11.4% 44% 43% -8.8%
≤90d 361 -5.4% -14.4% 42% 41% -16.0%
all 776 -4.6% -13.6% 39% 39% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 39% -18.4%
10% -21.9% 38% -26.2%
15% -29.5% 38% -33.4%
20% -36.4% 37% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$38 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,900
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses304 / 472
Open positions0
Markets (closed)776 / 777
History coverage185d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 776 Trades
no open positions (364 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $124 +$109 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $171 −$164 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $156 +$72 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $77 −$74 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $54 −$52 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$67 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$19 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$33 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $78 +$139 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $78 +$49 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $34 +$50 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$47 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $84 +$85 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $78 +$91 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $60 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $153 +$299 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $86 −$83 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$20 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $83 +$77 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $132 +$121 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$70 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $107 +$99 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$73 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$46 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $234 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $11 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $220 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2850 history records