Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f15…50cb crypto 271 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$331 (-2%) realized −$329 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%91W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$219est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$345
14 days+$289
30 days+$500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$1,616
sports 36% −$787
other 17% +$686
politics 3% +$169
world 3% +$1,756
finance 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 47% +0.3%
≤30d 85 +16.1% +5.1% 38% 36% -3.4%
≤90d 193 +18.0% +6.8% 37% 35% -5.7%
all 245 +13.7% +2.8% 37% 35% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 35% -6.2%
10% -7.0% 33% -15.2%
15% -16.0% 28% -23.4%
20% -24.2% 24% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$43 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized−$329
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses91 / 154
Est. fees paid−$219
Open positions1
Markets (closed)245 / 271
History coverage128d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $33 +$102 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $276 +$104 +38%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $84 −$51 -61%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $95 −$10 -11%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $122 −$27 -22%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $265 −$15 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $99 +$162 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $77 +$55 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $116 +$287 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$65 +139%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $101 −$30 -30%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 25 $100 −$20 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$75 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $128 +$42 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $77 +$54 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $76 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$21 +41%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $86 −$18 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $170 −$115 -68%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $120 +$50 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $77 −$75 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $120 +$77 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$45 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W Jun 21 $137 +$81 +59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 18 $150 −$13 -9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Canada (-1 Jun 18 $41 −$24 -58%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $36 −$3 -9%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $21 −$1 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $102 +$261 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $128 +$41 +32%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $112 +$57 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL 98¢ $381 5h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $33 5h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $33 5h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $84 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 74¢ $85 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $95 7h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $95 7h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $122 7h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 44¢ $122 7h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $129 12h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 43¢ $129 16h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 44¢ $136 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 71¢ $276 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 37¢ $99 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $132 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 43h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $116 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.05 · official $298.05 (match) · 691 history records