Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
2F 0x2f1a…f634 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$153 (+4%) realized +$154 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$208
7 days+$99
14 days+$112
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$8
sports 10% +$203
crypto 3% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +12.4% +1.7% 55% 52% -7.1%
≤30d 41 +13.1% +2.3% 56% 54% -6.8%
≤90d 41 +13.1% +2.3% 56% 54% -6.8%
all 41 +13.1% +2.3% 56% 54% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 54% -6.8%
10% -7.5% 44% -15.8%
15% -16.4% 32% -23.9%
20% -24.6% 24% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$60 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$154
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage7d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$21 -71%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$49 +48%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $66 +$12 +19%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$48 +237%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $99 +$32 +33%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $79 +$19 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $403 −$347 -86%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +125%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $272 +$37 +14%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $231 +$57 +24%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$28 +92%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $160 −$96 -60%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $105 −$80 -76%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $69 +$52 +76%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$15 -33%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$65 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$119 +78%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 +$108 +221%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$168 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$84 +272%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$27 -89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -95%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $205 −$20 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $154 −$8 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $227 +$244 +107%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $154 −$9 -6%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $141 −$72 -51%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $45 +$71 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 48m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 16¢ $9 50m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $151 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $50 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $34 3h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $35 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 3h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $39 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $33 6h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $29 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $34 9h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 9h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $69 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 10h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $27 10h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $29 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $131 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $99 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $98 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $79 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $56 32h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 33h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.18 · official $99.18 (match) · 119 history records