Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2F 0x2f1a…bfa2 sports 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 426d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,509 (+3%) realized +$3,530 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%33W / 68L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,039per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$195est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$455
7 days+$521
14 days+$457
30 days−$3,911
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$8,409
world 35% −$4,655
other 13% −$2,236
sports 6% +$403
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -10.8% -19.3% 33% 28% -1.0%
≤30d 26 -17.8% -25.7% 31% 27% -22.1%
≤90d 70 +2.4% -7.4% 36% 34% -1.5%
all 101 +6.3% -3.8% 33% 31% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 31% -6.1%
10% -13.0% 27% -15.0%
15% -21.4% 24% -23.3%
20% -29.1% 20% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$748) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$780 vs −$355 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

426d coverage
Net worth$2,413
Realized+$3,530
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses33 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$195
Open positions5
Markets (closed)101 / 106
History coverage426d
Avg bet$1,039
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,698 $1,638 −$60 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $660 $690 +$30 (+5%)
Will Sonia Backès be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $46 $60 +$14 (+30%)
Will Louis Mapou be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 50¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $385 +$49 +13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $228 −$137 -60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $156 −$22 -14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $308 +$690 +224%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $56 −$55 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $368 −$296 -80%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 26 $127 +$4 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $213 −$210 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $290 −$185 -64%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $183 −$26 -14%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $271 +$294 +108%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $1,364 +$608 +44%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $1,667 −$386 -23%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $43 −$42 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $107 +$392 +365%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 −$64 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $62 −$60 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $478 −$326 -68%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $224 +$354 +158%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,005 −$40 -4%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 10 $902 −$893 -99%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 10 $11,439 +$4,584 +40%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $8,949 −$7,987 -89%
Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? May 20 $1,018 −$1,011 -99%
Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? May 20 $307 −$305 -99%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $5,056 +$7,981 +158%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $87 +$193 +223%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $0 +$1 +300%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $139 −$116 -83%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 04 $303 +$149 +49%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 03 $3,170 +$1,635 +52%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 03 $110 −$109 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 30 $48 −$46 -97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla Apr 29 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $338 −$331 -98%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playo Apr 28 $273 +$105 +39%
LoL: G2 NORD vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divisi Apr 27 $95 +$9 +10%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 26 $81 +$48 +60%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 26 $181 −$89 -49%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 26 $51 −$33 -64%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $1,040 +$789 +76%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $398 −$393 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $407 −$405 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 24 $104 −$101 -97%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 23 $178 +$592 +332%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 22 $407 −$404 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sonia Backès be the next President of the Government of New Caled SELL Yes 28¢ $8 1h
Will Sonia Backès be the next President of the Government of New Caled SELL Yes 28¢ $25 1h
Will Louis Mapou be the next President of the Government of New Caledo BUY Yes 2¢ $29 2h
Will Louis Mapou be the next President of the Government of New Caledo BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will Louis Mapou be the next President of the Government of New Caledo BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will Louis Mapou be the next President of the Government of New Caledo BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will Louis Mapou be the next President of the Government of New Caledo BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will Louis Mapou be the next President of the Government of New Caledo BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will Louis Mapou be the next President of the Government of New Caledo BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will Sonia Backès be the next President of the Government of New Caled BUY Yes 19¢ $61 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $105 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $75 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,413.49 · official $2,413.39 (match) · 2630 history records