Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2F 0x2f1b…2cf9 world 14 markets active 1d ago coverage 190d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$387 (+15%) realized +$387 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$305
14 days−$305
30 days−$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$113
politics 21% +$102
crypto 11% +$87
tech 4% −$23
finance 2% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -33.1% -39.5% 20% 20% -34.8%
≤30d 5 -33.1% -39.5% 20% 20% -34.8%
≤90d 11 +18.8% +7.5% 45% 45% -3.5%
all 14 +26.1% +14.1% 57% 50% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.1% 50% +3.0%
10% +3.2% 50% -6.9%
15% -6.8% 43% -15.9%
20% -16.0% 36% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$153 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$387
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage190d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $399 +$174 +44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $290 −$290 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $212 −$153 -72%
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Jun 15 $100 −$23 -23%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $95 −$13 -14%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $284 +$499 +176%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 04 $378 −$378 -100%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 06 $78 +$140 +179%
Will Trump say "Paid a big price" or "Paying a big price" this week? ( Apr 02 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 02 $59 +$86 +148%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 26 $235 +$162 +69%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $104 +$132 +127%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jan 02 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $285 +$87 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $572 26h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $58 2d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? SELL Yes 51¢ $77 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $82 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $95 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $290 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 67¢ $399 9d
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $95 65d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $95 66d
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $189 68d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? BUY No 21¢ $378 68d
Will Trump say "Paid a big price" or "Paying a big price" this week? ( BUY Yes 24¢ $59 84d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $117 84d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 40¢ $59 84d
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $78 85d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $235 160d
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $104 160d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 68¢ $236 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 32¢ $25 182d
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $70 189d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 190d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 63¢ $49 190d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records