Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f21…cfb2 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% $0
other 24% +$3
politics 6% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 17 +0.5% -9.0% 53% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 17 +0.5% -9.0% 53% 0% -8.9%
all 32 -3.7% -12.9% 53% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.1%
10% -21.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -28.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage447d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $73 +$2 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $27 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $116 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $23 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $40 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $35 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 08 $24 $0 +1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 3? Jun 02 $24 $0 +1%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $23 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 31 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? May 31 $1 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $25 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $1 $0 +2%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 38h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $39 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $38 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $27 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $27 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $23 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $23 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.12 · official $29.12 (match) · 94 history records