Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f21…cfb4 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$580 (+15%) realized +$580 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$605
7 days+$729
14 days+$548
30 days+$548
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$163
sports 26% +$711
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +16.6% +5.5% 64% 64% +11.4%
≤30d 16 +4.2% -5.7% 56% 56% +3.4%
≤90d 16 +4.2% -5.7% 56% 56% +3.4%
all 16 +4.2% -5.7% 56% 56% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 56% +3.4%
10% -14.7% 56% -6.5%
15% -23.0% 56% -15.6%
20% -30.5% 50% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$172 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$580
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage9d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$159 +52%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 +$102 +100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$161 +158%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $202 +$131 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $307 −$302 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $406 +$329 +81%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,013 +$724 +72%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $609 −$600 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $131 −$128 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $273 −$47 -17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $81 +$39 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 82¢ $204 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 9h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 10h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 10h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $102 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $202 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $103 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $103 28h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $368 29h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $367 29h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $203 30h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $203 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $131 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 46¢ $130 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $172 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $95 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $81 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records