Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f26…0d8f
sports · 696 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$15,291 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,126 · open +$4,989
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49,126
Realized+$10,126
Unrealized+$4,989
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses255 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$447
Open positions498
Markets (closed)339 / 696
History coverage6d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day534.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 498 History 339 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,164
7 days+$10,126
14 days+$10,126
30 days+$10,126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 85¢ 78¢ $3,924 $3,584 −$339 (-9%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 45¢ 81¢ $1,458 $2,636 +$1,178 (+81%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 62¢ 87¢ $1,616 $2,257 +$641 (+40%)
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? No 89¢ 87¢ $1,545 $1,524 −$21 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 38¢ 74¢ $754 $1,460 +$706 (+94%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 81¢ 93¢ $1,030 $1,185 +$155 (+15%)
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jiri Lehecka 50¢ 72¢ $809 $1,157 +$348 (+43%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 93¢ 97¢ $1,031 $1,078 +$47 (+5%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $997 $1,040 +$43 (+4%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 84¢ 97¢ $848 $977 +$129 (+15%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 10%? No 77¢ 97¢ $731 $923 +$192 (+26%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 35¢ 34¢ $941 $901 −$40 (-4%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 42¢ $595 $796 +$201 (+34%)
Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? Yes 69¢ 78¢ $606 $692 +$85 (+14%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 83¢ 90¢ $604 $654 +$50 (+8%)
Will the Toronto Tempo make the 2026 WNBA Playoffs? Yes 54¢ 34¢ $942 $598 −$343 (-36%)
Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? No 58¢ 92¢ $365 $576 +$210 (+58%)
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 69¢ 94¢ $395 $538 +$142 (+36%)
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? No 62¢ 86¢ $373 $516 +$143 (+38%)
Will the Portland Fire make the 2026 WNBA Playoffs? No 68¢ 76¢ $446 $501 +$55 (+12%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 37¢ 36¢ $515 $495 −$20 (-4%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $464 $469 +$5 (+1%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $436 $465 +$29 (+7%)
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 83¢ 74¢ $520 $463 −$57 (-11%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? No 94¢ 93¢ $455 $451 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $95 +$23 +24%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Jun 12 $24 −$3 -14%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $19 +$3 +18%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $226 −$1 -0%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $107 −$28 -26%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Perricard (+1.5) Jun 12 $76 +$112 +146%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $12 +$3 +23%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $83 +$31 +37%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $30 +$19 +64%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $75 +$64 +84%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $44 −$38 -86%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 12 $1 +$6 +414%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 12 $77 +$81 +105%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $93 −$32 -34%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $35 +$8 +21%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $42 +$10 +23%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $15 +$2 +14%
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Set Handicap: Mannarino (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 12 $190 +$287 +151%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4 Jun 12 $53 +$160 +305%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $122 −$48 -40%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $139 −$59 -42%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $63 −$3 -5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 +$2 +32%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $108 +$4 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $22 +$53 +246%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $12 $0 +2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $152 +$117 +77%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $11 −$5 -44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $74 −$1 -2%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $87 +$2 +2%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $91 +$163 +178%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $205 +$36 +18%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $60 +$19 +32%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $23 +$7 +32%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $26 +$1 +4%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $120 +$417 +347%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $92 +$60 +66%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $441 −$8 -2%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $50 +$24 +49%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $5 +$27 +488%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 11 $34 +$11 +31%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $38 −$27 -71%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $3 +$26 +1045%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $215 +$40 +19%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $175 +$45 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $35 +$5 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% +$9,836
other 40% +$2,547
politics 6% +$1,231
crypto 3% +$1,508
tech 1% +$59
culture 1% −$31
world 0% −$33
economics 0% −$4
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 64¢ $18 4m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 64¢ $4 4m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 64¢ $9 4m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 64¢ $3 4m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 64¢ $3 4m
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 8¢ $3 5m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 42¢ $1 6m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 42¢ $5 6m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 58¢ $11 7m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 42¢ $1 7m
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $10 14m
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Keegan Smith 3¢ $2 28m
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Keegan Smith 3¢ $2 28m
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Keegan Smith 2¢ $2 28m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 28m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? SELL Yes 56¢ $12 31m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 36m
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Keegan Smith 31¢ $14 39m
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 23¢ $1 54m
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 23¢ $2 54m
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 86¢ $50 59m
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 69¢ $42 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Haiti 24¢ $2 1h
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Harmony Tan 85¢ $19 1h
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 50¢ $12 1h
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 50¢ $30 1h
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 50¢ $40 1h
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 50¢ $57 1h
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 50¢ $57 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+52.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 339 +68.6% +52.5% 75% 59% +11.0%
≤30d 339 +68.6% +52.5% 75% 59% +11.0%
≤90d 339 +68.6% +52.5% 75% 59% +11.0%
all 339 +68.6% +52.5% 75% 59% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover534.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +52.5% 59% +11.0%
10% ← realistic here +37.9% 44% +0.4%
15% +24.6% 34% -9.3%
20% +12.4% 29% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49,125.57 · official $49,131.72 (match) · 3500 history records