Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:12:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f27…1015 other 233 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 219L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$25
14 days−$33
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$37
sports 22% −$17
politics 9% −$6
economics 6% −$13
culture 6% −$6
crypto 4% −$3
world 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 233
History coverage131d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $132 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $545 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $462 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $185 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $209 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $110 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 19 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $95 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $370 −$2 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $389 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $160 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $436 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $352 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $384 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $322 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $892 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $844 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $341 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 1h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 8h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 9h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $47 11h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $47 12h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $47 13h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $47 14h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 17h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 18h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $47 22h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $47 24h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 26h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 27h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 29h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 31h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 32h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 34h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 36h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 38h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 41h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 42h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 44h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 46h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1381 history records