Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f2a…d944 crypto 976 markets active 4d ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$182 (-8%) realized −$182 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate27%257W / 696L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$2
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -1.0% -10.4% 78% 4% -10.0%
≤30d 409 -27.9% -34.7% 50% 3% -17.3%
≤90d 953 -31.5% -38.0% 27% 4% -22.5%
all 953 -31.5% -38.0% 27% 4% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.0% 4% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -43.9% 3% -29.9%
15% -49.4% 3% -36.7%
20% -54.3% 3% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses257 / 696
Open positions0
Markets (closed)953 / 976
History coverage62d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 953 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1803 history records