Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2F 0x2f2d…0a9f other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$83 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$200
7 days+$193
14 days+$79
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$194
sports 49% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +7.2% -3.0% 50% 50% +1.9%
≤30d 48 -0.8% -10.2% 52% 50% -6.5%
≤90d 48 -0.8% -10.2% 52% 50% -6.5%
all 48 -0.8% -10.2% 52% 50% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 50% -6.5%
10% -18.8% 40% -15.4%
15% -26.7% 33% -23.6%
20% -33.9% 27% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$45 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$521
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions8
Markets (closed)48 / 57
History coverage13d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $60 $70 +$10 (+17%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 84¢ $60 $70 +$10 (+16%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 47¢ 46¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 32¢ $85 $38 −$47 (-56%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 30¢ $60 $26 −$34 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$25 -82%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$60 +59%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $101 +$48 +48%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$212 +414%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$71 +70%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $51 +$18 +35%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 +$7 +14%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $51 +$49 +97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 −$94 -92%
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 22 $101 −$5 -5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$2 -4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $61 +$30 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 +$10 +32%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 +$5 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$35 +34%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $41 +$35 +85%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 +$31 +52%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $31 +$20 +65%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$45 -74%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $61 +$132 +216%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 −$20 -32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $121 −$14 -12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$64 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 +$10 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$7 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$30 +100%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 58m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 47¢ $61 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $61 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $61 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 24h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Son Heungmi BUY 31¢ $61 24h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 25h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 43¢ $101 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $52 26h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $149 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $110 26h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 42¢ $102 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 27h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 37¢ $27 2d
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 58¢ $42 2d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $32 3d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Under 37¢ $26 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 4¢ $8 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? SELL Yes 53¢ $97 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $51 3d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 34¢ $51 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $51 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3d
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 3d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $521.26 · official $521.29 (match) · 102 history records