Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2F 0x2f2e…4261 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$20 (-3%) realized −$19 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown88%max

Avg bet$126per market

Trades / day3.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+14.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+26.5%	+14.4%	60%	60%	+1.9%
≤30d	5	+26.5%	+14.4%	60%	60%	+1.9%
≤90d	5	+26.5%	+14.4%	60%	60%	+1.9%
all	5	+26.5%	+14.4%	60%	60%	+1.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+14.4%	60%	+1.9%
10%	+3.5%	60%	-7.9%
15%	-6.5%	60%	-16.8%
20%	-15.7%	40%	-24.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$31 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$116

Realized−$19

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage5d

Avg bet$126

Trades / day3.2

Drawdown88%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$117	$116	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$89	+$58	+65%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$78	+$46	+59%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$61	+$28	+46%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$171	−$43	-25%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$154	−$19	-12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$124	1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	62¢	$78	2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$78	2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	60¢	$89	3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$204	25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$128	25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$61	26h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$136	28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$49	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$1	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$4	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$12	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	4d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$154	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$78	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.22 · official $116.22 (match) · 23 history records