Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f31…7a43 other 24 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$331 (-26%) realized −$331 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%6W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$149
sports 36% −$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -23.8% -31.0% 24% 19% -39.7%
≤30d 22 -20.5% -28.1% 27% 23% -36.4%
≤90d 22 -20.5% -28.1% 27% 23% -36.4%
all 22 -20.5% -28.1% 27% 23% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 23% -36.4%
10% -35.0% 18% -42.5%
15% -41.3% 18% -48.1%
20% -47.0% 14% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$37 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$331
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses6 / 16
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage2d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$55 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$78 -77%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$41 -40%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $21 −$16 -78%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$4 -42%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$36 -72%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$29 +19%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$33 +650%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $24 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $31 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $41 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $101 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $101 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $24 6d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 43¢ $60 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 27¢ $6 6d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 13¢ $14 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $10 6d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: Austria BUY 10¢ $15 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records