Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f37…e169 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate85%17W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$35
other 47% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -5.6% -14.6% 85% 40% -13.4%
≤30d 20 -5.6% -14.6% 85% 40% -13.4%
≤90d 20 -5.6% -14.6% 85% 40% -13.4%
all 20 -5.6% -14.6% 85% 40% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 40% -13.4%
10% -22.8% 0% -21.7%
15% -30.2% 0% -29.2%
20% -37.1% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$20 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses17 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage3d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Jun 21 $245 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $45 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $35 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $0 45m
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 SELL Yes 100¢ $258 1h
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $45 1h
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $50 1h
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 97¢ $50 1h
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $50 1h
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $18 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $7 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $32 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $35 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records