Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f38…8c6c crypto 214 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$552 (-6%) realized −$552 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%129W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$72
14 days−$72
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$434
sports 5% −$83
other 1% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 71% 47% -18.1%
≤30d 22 -2.6% -11.8% 68% 50% -19.3%
≤90d 35 -13.7% -21.9% 60% 46% -24.2%
all 212 -4.7% -13.7% 61% 48% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 48% -15.2%
10% -22.0% 33% -23.3%
15% -29.5% 22% -30.7%
20% -36.4% 14% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$25 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$552
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses129 / 83
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 214
History coverage228d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $73 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $69 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $54 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $63 −$14 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $55 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$17 +81%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 01 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 01 $19 +$14 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$8 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 01 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 31 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 31 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 26 $85 −$84 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 26 $50 −$19 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 26 $50 +$35 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 26 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 26 $117 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 26 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 26 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Feb 27 $57 −$56 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 27 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 27 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 27 $32 +$27 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 27 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Feb 27 $81 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Feb 27 $51 +$30 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 27 $37 +$15 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 27 $59 −$21 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 27 $36 −$28 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 27 $50 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 27 $101 −$59 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Feb 27 $65 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 27 $57 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Feb 27 $54 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $90 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $63 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $55 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06- BUY 7¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $38 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $38 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 461 history records